Dr. Guy Millière：歐洲的迅速衰落
发表于 ： 周二 8月 25, 2026 3:23 pm
2026年2月14日，美國國務卿馬可·魯比奧在慕尼黑安全會議上發表了一篇高度讚揚歐洲及其歷史傳承的演說。不過，他也指出，歐洲正在變得衰弱。他說：「我們不希望自己的盟友軟弱。」
起初，在場的歐洲政治領袖和記者對他的演說反應良好，但這種態度並沒有維持多久。幾名記者很快指出，儘管魯比奧對歐洲的態度似乎比美國副總統萬斯一年前更加友善，但他仍然相當「傲慢」，因為他自以為歐洲需要接受美國的建議，才知道如何變得更強大。
一些人回想起，川普政府在2025年11月公布的《國家安全戰略》曾經警告，歐洲正面臨「文明被抹去的前景」。他們把這項說法形容為對歐洲的「侮辱」。
歐洲政治領袖也迅速表明，他們拒絕接受魯比奧的說法。歐盟外交與安全政策高級代表卡婭·卡拉斯在慕尼黑發表自己的演說時宣稱：「與某些人的說法相反……歐洲並沒有面臨文明被抹去。」
德國總理弗里德里希·默茨也特別強調，「歐洲價值觀」並不是川普政府所倡導的那些價值觀。
遺憾的是，這些反應並沒有改變一個令人恐懼的事實：作為一種文明，歐洲正在被抹去。歐洲正在走向迅速而廣泛的衰退，而且這種衰退可能無法逆轉。時間已經極為緊迫。除非歐洲採取大刀闊斧的行動，扭轉已經根深蒂固的趨勢，否則僅從人口結構來看，歐洲文明很快就會成為歷史。
在經濟方面，歐洲的狀況極為糟糕。根據國際貨幣基金組織的資料，1980年，歐洲經濟共同體的九個成員國，也就是今天擁有27個成員國的歐盟之前身，約占全球國內生產總值的27%。到了2025年底，同樣九個國家加上前東德，占全球國內生產總值的比例已經大幅下降至15.5%。一些歐洲經濟學家以中國和東亞國家的迅速發展來解釋這項差距。然而，只要觀察美國經濟，就可以徹底推翻這種說法。1980年，美國占全球國內生產總值的25.3%，當時還低於歐盟所占比例。到了2025年底，美國占全球國內生產總值約26%，甚至略高於1980年的水準。
將近五十年來，歐盟的經濟成長率和生產力增長速度一直落後於美國。統計數據還顯示，政府稅收總額占國內生產總值的比例，在幾乎所有歐盟成員國都已經上升，而美國並沒有出現這種趨勢。目前，政府稅收總額平均占歐盟國內生產總值的40%以上。部分國家的比例較低，例如愛爾蘭是22.4%，但另外幾個國家則更高，包括丹麥45.8%、法國45.3%、比利時45.1%，以及義大利42.6%。1980年，美國政府稅收總額，包括聯邦、州和地方稅收以及社會保障繳款，占國內生產總值的25.6%。今天，這個比例仍然是25.6%。平均而言，歐盟國家的民眾承擔的總體稅負遠高於美國人，儘管美國還對國防進行巨額投資。歐盟與美國之間的差距已經變得極為龐大。
歐盟國家建立的福利制度自1980年以來持續擴張，並且壓抑經濟成長。今天，社會支出占歐盟各國政府預算總額接近40%，遠高於美國。以同樣的稅前薪資計算，歐洲的強制性社會保險繳款是美國的兩倍至兩倍半。這項負擔大幅提高了歐洲企業的勞動力成本，也解釋了為什麼歐洲僱員的實際到手薪資低於美國。平均而言，歐洲企業每月向僱員支付2,000歐元，也就是大約2,300美元的薪資，實際成本卻高達3,800歐元，也就是大約4,375美元。在美國，企業每月支付2,000美元薪資，實際成本根據所在州不同，只有2,200至2,800美元。這項差距相當可觀，也有助於解釋為什麼歐洲的失業率高於美國。
歐盟還制定了大量令人窒息的法規，對企業造成沉重負擔。對天然氣和電力生產的限制，再加上推動迅速而且極為昂貴的「再生能源」轉型，使歐洲的天然氣價格目前比美國高出三至五倍，電價則比美國高出兩至四倍。為了生存，許多歐洲企業已經把生產活動轉移到歐洲以外。
國際投資正在遠離歐洲。全球十大科技企業中，有九家是美國公司，第十家則來自臺灣。歐洲在這個至關重要的產業中沒有任何主要參與者，在人工智慧領域更是幾乎完全缺席。
儘管熱浪影響歐洲已經超過二十年，但歐洲仍然抗拒使用空調，把空調視為一種昂貴的奢侈品，因為空調會消耗價格高昂的電力。平均而言，歐盟國家只有20%的家庭擁有空調。2003年，歐洲熱浪造成超過兩萬人死亡。歐洲幾乎沒有採取任何措施防止悲劇重演，因此，2026年的另一場熱浪已經奪走兩萬五千人的生命。
其他因素也在加速歐洲的衰退。
對未來的悲觀情緒正在歐洲升高。這種情緒受到一種值得質疑的論述推動，這種論述不斷譴責「人為造成的全球暖化」，並且誇大地宣揚地球可能變得不再適合人類居住的恐懼。民調顯示，目前有63%的歐洲人認為，自己最好的歲月已經過去；77%的人相信，下一代在自己國家的生活將會更加艱難。這種悲觀情緒還伴隨著出生率急劇下降，數據顯示，歐洲人口正在迅速老化。歐盟目前的平均生育率是每名女性生育1.34個孩子，遠低於維持世代更替所需要的2.1。這反映出人口老化正在加速，為退休金和醫療保健制度帶來日益沉重的負擔。西班牙的數字是每名女性生育1.10個孩子，義大利是1.14，波蘭也是1.10。如果不發生重大變化，西班牙、義大利和波蘭的人口將迅速減少。數據顯示，2025年歐盟有346萬人出生，卻有481萬人死亡。
淡化傳統家庭角色的趨勢正在歐洲擴大，使人口世代更替問題進一步惡化。在西班牙、瑞典、法國和英國等多個歐洲國家，性教育與學校教科書中對「性別認同」、「改變性別的可能性」以及「多元家庭結構」的解釋同時出現，其中包括由兩位母親或者兩位父親組成的家庭。在整個歐洲，同性家庭和單親家庭的數量正在增加，而統計數據顯示，這些家庭的子女數量通常少於同時擁有父親和母親的家庭。
歐洲人口正在減少，但至少在現階段，大規模移民對歐洲財政造成的負擔，可能大於他們對勞動力或者經濟成長所作出的貢獻。官僚機構的報告以樂觀語調預測移民會帶來「長期」利益。即使大規模移民真的能夠帶來經濟利益，它仍然正在使歐洲大陸走向文化死亡。
歐洲大多數新移民來自穆斯林世界，而且似乎對融入當地社會或者變得更加西方化毫無興趣。許多人受到自己社群領袖的強烈阻止，不應採取上述任何一種做法，例如透過「榮譽殺人」形成威嚇。此外，穆斯林女性生育的孩子多於非穆斯林女性。在英國，如果穆斯林男子在海外結婚，可以擁有最多四名妻子，每名妻子都能獲得額外的社會福利。穆斯林在教義上被要求鄙視歐洲對同性戀生活方式的寬容，拒絕子女在歷史和性教育方面所接受的內容，把歐洲視為墮落而可鄙的社會，並且公開拒絕接受他們選擇居住的新社會。事實上，移民當中似乎正出現一種日益強烈的要求，要把歐洲改造得更像他們已經離開的第三世界國家。
英國、法國、比利時、荷蘭和瑞典的穆斯林人口比例數十年來不斷上升，並且產生了任何稍微了解歷史的人都可以預料到的後果。各種警告一直沒有受到重視。
抵達歐洲的大多數穆斯林，來自反猶主義和仇恨以色列情緒普遍存在的國家。他們在歐洲定居以後，仍然保持反猶立場和對以色列的仇恨，並且積極促成所在國家仇恨猶太人和反以色列偏見的急劇增加。許多歐洲本地人在政治上與他們結盟，自稱「反錫安主義者」，也就是反對以色列的存在，並對穆斯林的反猶主義表現出極大寬容。
英國平等與人權委員會在2020年10月29日發布的一份報告中認定，在多宗反猶主義案件中，工黨因傑里米·柯賓辦公室進行「不當政治干預」而負有責任。柯賓其後被暫停黨籍，並於2024年被開除出黨。他與另一名前工黨成員扎拉·蘇爾塔娜共同成立了一個新政黨。蘇爾塔娜是一名「反錫安主義」穆斯林。兩人都在2024年再次當選，目前仍然是國會議員。
在法國，主要左翼政黨「不屈法國」持「反錫安主義」立場，公開支持巴勒斯坦組織，並且拒絕把哈馬斯定義為恐怖組織。該黨一些曾經發表反猶言論的領袖受到起訴，但沒有被判罪。
從恐怖組織哈馬斯於2023年10月7日入侵以色列並發動大屠殺開始，在以色列於加薩對哈馬斯作戰的整個期間，西歐所有主要城市都有反以色列示威隊伍上街，並高喊支持哈馬斯的口號。令人震驚的是，自從那場大屠殺發生以來，西歐各地的反猶襲擊急劇增加，猶太人則繼續離開歐洲。
歐洲猶太人大會進行的一項民調顯示，目前仍然留在歐洲的猶太人中，多數希望離開。歐洲猶太人大會主席阿里爾·穆齊坎特於2024年表示：「我們正在輸掉這場戰鬥。57%的歐洲猶太人正在考慮離開。幾年以後，可能有50%的猶太社群將不復存在。」
一些主張捍衛西方文明與價值觀，並且宣示反對歐洲伊斯蘭化和「文明被抹去」的政黨，正在選舉中迅速取得支持。與此同時，歐洲主要國家的政治領袖和歐盟領導人，似乎下定決心阻止這些政黨執政，例如這裡、這裡和這裡所顯示的情況。
在德國，德國另類選擇黨在選民投票意向民調中領先，卻受到其他政黨聯合抵制。這種做法被稱為「防火牆」。其他全國和地方政黨相互結盟，把德國另類選擇黨排除在外，阻止它組成政府，甚至不讓它參與執政。
在已經退出歐盟的英國，英國改革黨在近期多場地方選舉中贏得大量席位，未來甚至可能取代保守黨。與此同時，2026年7月26日至27日進行的一項全國民調顯示，工黨在潛在選民中的支持率已經降至歷史新低，只剩22%，是英國執政黨自1940年代以來最差的成績。由於下一次大選要到2029年才舉行，基爾·斯塔默辭去首相職務，其繼任者安迪·伯納姆由工黨任命，工黨顯然希望盡可能避免提前舉行大選。
在法國，國民聯盟多年來一直是最受歡迎的政黨。在2024年國會選舉期間，國民聯盟一度看來即將贏得絕對多數。就在第二輪投票前，總統艾曼紐·馬克宏敦促其他所有政黨組成「共和陣線」。各黨領袖呼籲選民把票投給最有可能擊敗國民聯盟候選人的人，結果是溫和右翼選民投票支持極左翼候選人，左翼和極左翼選民則投票支持溫和右翼政黨。最終產生了一個四分五裂的國民議會，無法組成一個內部足夠團結、可以作出政策決定的政府。
法國的經濟狀況原本已經令人憂慮，後來進一步惡化。失業率達到8%，而且仍在上升。中小企業破產數量不斷增加，2025年共有69,957家企業破產。國民聯盟領袖瑪琳·勒龐在2027年總統選舉的民調中保持領先。她曾經被判處三年監禁，並被禁止擔任公職45個月，其中30個月緩期執行。她被判罪所涉及的行為，曾經在不屈法國領袖讓-呂克·梅朗雄的案件中導致撤銷指控。勒龐和梅朗雄被指控的行為，都是允許歐洲議會議員的議會助理，在巴黎為自己服務的歐洲議會議員工作。勒龐向法國最高上訴法院翻案法院提出上訴，該法院其後暫停執行判決。
勒龐被定罪並沒有降低她的支持率。翻案法院表示，將在2027年總統選舉以前作出裁決。法院院長已經暗示，原有罪判決可能獲得維持。這表示，如果勒龐當選，她將成為法國歷史上第一位在背負監禁判決的情況下贏得總統職位的人。不屈法國國民議會黨團主席瑪蒂爾德·帕諾宣稱，如果勒龐勝出，她的政黨不會承認這場選舉的合法性，並將號召民眾起義。
這些不受歐洲「精英」歡迎的政黨，其所謂的「罪行」，就是捍衛西方價值、對抗歐洲伊斯蘭化，以及反對歐洲文明遭到抹去。因此，這些政黨受到各種排斥手段打壓，並遭到其他政治領袖持續不斷的騷擾。這些政治領袖似乎不只是在理念上與它們意見不同，還正在把整個歐洲大陸拖向自由落體式的衰敗，甚至可能走向文化死亡。
蓋伊·米利埃爾博士是巴黎大學教授，著有27本關於法國與歐洲的書。
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/22801/europe-in-free-fall
Europe in Free Fall
by Guy Millière
On February 14, 2026, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio delivered a laudatory speech about Europe and its legacy at the Munich Security Conference. He noted, however, that Europe is weakening. "We don't want our allies to be weak," he said.
His remarks initially were well received by the European political leaders and journalists in the room; not for long. Several journalists soon mentioned that, while Rubio appeared friendlier toward Europe than US Vice President J.D. Vance's had been a year earlier, he was still "arrogant" in presuming that Europe needed advice on how to be stronger.
Some recalled that the Trump administration's November 2025 National Security Strategy had warned that Europe faces the "prospect of civilizational erasure" — a claim they described as an "insult" to Europe.
Political leaders were also quick to express their rejection of what Rubio had said. The European Union's foreign affairs and security policy chief, Kaja Kallas, in her own speech in Munich, declared: "Contrary to what some may say... Europe is not facing civilizational erasure."
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz made a point of emphasizing that "European values" were not those championed by the Trump administration.
These reactions unfortunately have not changed the terrifying fact that Europe's erasure as a civilization is underway. Europe is on a path toward rapid, widespread decline — potentially irreversible. It is already extremely late in the day. Unless drastic actions are taken to reverse firmly entrenched trends, European civilization, simply demographically, will soon be part of the past.
Economically, Europe is in ghastly shape. In 1980, the nine member states of the European Economic Community (today's 27-member European Union) accounted for approximately 27% of global GDP, according to the IMF. By the end of 2025, the figure for the same nine countries (plus the former East Germany) had fallen significantly to just 15.5% of global GDP. Some European economists explain this disparity by citing the rapid development of China and the East Asian nations. A look at the US economy, however, shatters that explanation: in 1980, the United States accounted for 25.3% of global GDP — less than the EU's share. By the end of 2025, the United States accounts for approximately 26% of global GDP -- slightly more than in 1980.
For nearly five decades, the European Union's economic growth and productivity rates have lagged behind those of the United States. Statistics also show that the total general government tax revenue as a percentage of GDP has increased in almost all member countries of the European Union — a trend not seen in the United States. Today, general government tax revenue accounts, on average, for more than 40% of the European Union's total GDP. The figure for some countries is lower (22.4% for Ireland), but higher for several others: Denmark (45.8%), France (45.3%), Belgium (45.1%), and Italy (42.6%). The total general government tax revenue (federal, state, and local taxes plus social security) in the United States in 1980 was 25.6% of GDP. Today, it is still 25.6%. On average, populations in European Union countries pay far higher total taxes than Americans do, despite significant US investment in defense. The gap between the European Union and the United States has become immense.
European Union countries have established welfare states that have steadily expanded since 1980 and stifle economic growth. Today, social spending accounts for nearly 40% of total government budgets across the European Union — a figure far higher than that of the United States. Social insurance mandatory contributions in Europe are 2 to 2.5 times higher than in the United States for the same gross salary. This burden significantly increases labor costs for European companies and explains why employee take-home pay is lower in Europe than in the US. On average, in Europe, paying a monthly salary of €2,000 ($2,300) costs a company €3,800 ($4,375). In the US, paying a monthly salary of $2,000 costs a company only $2,200 to $2,800, depending on the state where it operates. The difference is considerable, and helps explain why unemployment in Europe is higher than in the United States.
The European Union has also proliferated stifling regulations that place a heavy encumbrance on businesses. Restrictions on gas and electricity production, combined with a drive for a rapid and extremely costly transition to "renewable energy", have resulted in natural gas prices in Europe that are now three to five times higher than in the US, and electricity prices that are 2 to 4 times higher than in the US. To survive, many European companies have relocated production outside Europe.
International investment is turning away from Europe. Nine of the world's top ten tech companies are American; the tenth is Taiwanese. There are no major European players in this crucial sector, and Europe is almost entirely absent from the field of artificial intelligence.
Although heatwaves have been affecting Europe for more than two decades, the continent remains resistant to air conditioning, viewing it as an expensive luxury (AC consumes costly electricity). On average, only 20% of households in EU countries have air conditioning. In 2003, a heatwave in Europe killed more than 20,000 people. Almost nothing was done to prevent a recurrence, so in 2026, another heatwave has already claimed 25,000 lives.
Other factors are also contributing to Europe's decline.
Pessimism about the future — fueled by the questionable narrative berating "man-made global warming" and the hyped-up fear that the planet may become uninhabitable — is on the rise in Europe. Polls show that 63% of Europeans now believe their best years are behind them, and 77% believe that life in their country will be harder for the next generation. This pessimism is accompanied by a sharp drop in birth rates, with figures indicating that the population is rapidly aging. The average birthrate in the European Union now stands at 1.34 live births per woman, well below the generational replacement level of 2.1. This reflects an accelerating aging process that places an increasingly heavy obligation on pension and healthcare systems. In Spain, the figure is 1.10 live births per woman; in Italy, it is 1.14, and in Poland, it is also 1.10. Without major changes, Spain, Italy, and Poland will experience rapid population decline. Figures show that there were 3.46 million births and 4.81 million deaths in the European Union in 2025.
A trend toward downplaying traditional family roles is gaining ground in Europe, further exacerbating the problem of demographic replacement. In several European countries — Spain, Sweden, France, and the UK — sex education goes hand in hand with school textbooks explaining "gender identity," "the possibility of sex reassignment" and "diverse family structures," including having two mothers or two fathers. Across Europe, the number of same-sex and single-parent families is rising, and statistics show that such families generally have fewer children than families with both a father and a mother.
Europe's population is decreasing, but mass migration, at this stage anyway, might be more of a burden on Europe's finances than a contribution to its workforce or economic growth. Bureaucratic reports rosily predict "long term" gains. Even if mass migration were an economic benefit, it nevertheless is leading the European continent to cultural death.
Most new immigrants in Europe come from the Muslim world and appear to have no interest whatever in assimilating or becoming more westernized. Many are emphatically discouraged from doing either by the leaders of their communities, for instance, by "honor killings." In addition, Muslim women have more children than non-Muslim women. In the UK, Muslim men may have up to four wives if married abroad, each of whom receives extra social welfare benefits. Muslims are doctrinally directed to despise Europe's tolerance of the gay way of life; reject what is taught to their children regarding both history and sex education; see Europe as decadent and contemptible, and to openly reject the new societies in which they chose to live. There appears to be a growing demand among immigrants, in fact, to make Europe more like the Third World countries they abandoned.
The proportion of Muslims in the United Kingdom, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Sweden has been increasing decade after decade – with consequences that anyone even slightly versed in history could have expected. Warnings have gone unheeded.
Most Muslims arriving in Europe come from countries where antisemitism and hatred of Israel are widespread. Once settled in Europe, they remain antisemitic and hateful toward Israel, and contribute aggressively to the sharp rise of Jew-hate and anti-Israel bias in the countries where they now live. Many native Europeans ally themselves politically with them, declare themselves "anti-Zionist" (hostile to the existence of Israel), and show immense tolerance for Muslim antisemitism.
In the UK, the Equality and Human Rights Commission established in an October 29, 2020 report that the Labour Party was guilty of "inappropriate political interference" by Jeremy Corbyn's office in several antisemitism cases. Corbyn was suspended from party membership and, in 2024, expelled from the party. He created a separate party with another former Labour member, Zarah Sultana, an "anti-Zionist" Muslim. Both were reelected in 2024 and are still MPs.
In France, the main left-wing party, La France Insoumise (France Unbowed) is "anti-Zionist," openly supports Palestinian organizations, and refuses to define Hamas as a terrorist organization. Some of its leaders who have made antisemitic remarks have been prosecuted but not convicted.
Starting immediately with the terrorist group Hamas's invasion of Israel and massacre of October 7, 2023, and throughout Israel's war against Hamas in Gaza, anti-Israel demonstrations chanting slogans in support of Hamas were on the march in all major Western European cities. Appallingly, since the massacre, a ntisemitic attacks have seen a sharp increase across Western Europe, while Jews continue to leave Europe.
A poll conducted for the European Jewish Congress (EJC) shows that a majority of Jews still in Europe would like to leave. Ariel Muzicant, the president of EJC said in 2024, "We're losing the battle. 57% of European Jews are considering leaving. In a few years, 50% of the communities may no longer exist."
Political parties defending Western civilization and values — while asserting their opposition to the Islamization of Europe and "civilizational erasure" — are gaining electoral momentum. Meanwhile, political leaders across major European nations and at the helm of the EU appear determined to prevent those parties from governing (such as here, here and here).
In Germany, Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) leads in polls of voter intentions but faces a boycott by other parties known as the Brandmauer ("firewall"), with all other national and state parties forming alliances that exclude the AfD to prevent it from forming or even participating in governments.
In the United Kingdom — no longer part of the EU — Reform UK won many recent local elections and might be positioned to eclipse the Conservative Party. Meanwhile, a national poll conducted on July 26-27, 2026, revealed that the Labour Party had reached a record low among potential voters: 22%, the worst results for a British governing party since the 1940s. With no general election due until 2029, Keir Starmer resigned as prime minister, and his successor, Andy Burnham, was appointed by the Labour Party, apparently trying to avoid a new general election as long as it can.
In France, the National Rally (NR) has been the country's most popular party for years. During the 2024 legislative elections, the NR appeared poised to win an absolute majority. Just before the election's second round, President Emmanuel Macron urged all other parties to form a "Republican Front." Their leaders called for votes to go to whichever candidate stood the best chance of defeating the NR contender: leading moderate right-wing voters to vote for far-left candidates, and left-wing and far-left voters to vote for moderate right-wing parties. The result was a fragmented National Assembly, unable to form a government cohesive enough to make policy decisions.
France's economic situation was already concerning; it has since worsened. Unemployment is at 8% and is rising. Bankruptcies among small and medium-sized enterprises are increasing (in 2025, 69,957 businesses went bankrupt). National Rally's Marine Le Pen has been leading the polls for the 2027 presidential election. She had been sentenced to three years in prison and 45 months (with 30 months suspended) of a public office ban, for actions that had previously led to dropped charges for Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the leader of France Unbowed. The alleged crime was that Le Pen and Mélenchon allowed parliamentary assistants to Members of the European Parliament to work in Paris for the MEPs they served. Le Pen appealed the case to the Court of Cassation, France's supreme court of appeal, which suspended the sentence.
Le Pen's conviction has not diminished her popularity. The Court of Cassation has stated it will issue its ruling before the 2027 presidential election, and the court's president has hinted that the conviction will be upheld — meaning that if elected, Le Pen would become the first French president to win office while under a prison sentence. Mathilde Panot, president of the France Unbowed group in the National Assembly, declared that her party would not recognize the legitimacy of Le Pen's election should she win, and would call for an uprising.
The "offense" of those political parties disfavored by Europe's "elites" consists of defending the values of the West, fighting the Islamization of Europe, and opposing the erasure of European civilization. These political parties are consequently subjected to exclusionary maneuvers and are relentlessly harassed by rival political leaders who not only seem to disagree but are also dragging the continent into a free fall and a possible cultural death.
Dr. Guy Millière, a professor at the University of Paris, is the author of 27 books on France and Europe.
起初，在場的歐洲政治領袖和記者對他的演說反應良好，但這種態度並沒有維持多久。幾名記者很快指出，儘管魯比奧對歐洲的態度似乎比美國副總統萬斯一年前更加友善，但他仍然相當「傲慢」，因為他自以為歐洲需要接受美國的建議，才知道如何變得更強大。
一些人回想起，川普政府在2025年11月公布的《國家安全戰略》曾經警告，歐洲正面臨「文明被抹去的前景」。他們把這項說法形容為對歐洲的「侮辱」。
歐洲政治領袖也迅速表明，他們拒絕接受魯比奧的說法。歐盟外交與安全政策高級代表卡婭·卡拉斯在慕尼黑發表自己的演說時宣稱：「與某些人的說法相反……歐洲並沒有面臨文明被抹去。」
德國總理弗里德里希·默茨也特別強調，「歐洲價值觀」並不是川普政府所倡導的那些價值觀。
遺憾的是，這些反應並沒有改變一個令人恐懼的事實：作為一種文明，歐洲正在被抹去。歐洲正在走向迅速而廣泛的衰退，而且這種衰退可能無法逆轉。時間已經極為緊迫。除非歐洲採取大刀闊斧的行動，扭轉已經根深蒂固的趨勢，否則僅從人口結構來看，歐洲文明很快就會成為歷史。
在經濟方面，歐洲的狀況極為糟糕。根據國際貨幣基金組織的資料，1980年，歐洲經濟共同體的九個成員國，也就是今天擁有27個成員國的歐盟之前身，約占全球國內生產總值的27%。到了2025年底，同樣九個國家加上前東德，占全球國內生產總值的比例已經大幅下降至15.5%。一些歐洲經濟學家以中國和東亞國家的迅速發展來解釋這項差距。然而，只要觀察美國經濟，就可以徹底推翻這種說法。1980年，美國占全球國內生產總值的25.3%，當時還低於歐盟所占比例。到了2025年底，美國占全球國內生產總值約26%，甚至略高於1980年的水準。
將近五十年來，歐盟的經濟成長率和生產力增長速度一直落後於美國。統計數據還顯示，政府稅收總額占國內生產總值的比例，在幾乎所有歐盟成員國都已經上升，而美國並沒有出現這種趨勢。目前，政府稅收總額平均占歐盟國內生產總值的40%以上。部分國家的比例較低，例如愛爾蘭是22.4%，但另外幾個國家則更高，包括丹麥45.8%、法國45.3%、比利時45.1%，以及義大利42.6%。1980年，美國政府稅收總額，包括聯邦、州和地方稅收以及社會保障繳款，占國內生產總值的25.6%。今天，這個比例仍然是25.6%。平均而言，歐盟國家的民眾承擔的總體稅負遠高於美國人，儘管美國還對國防進行巨額投資。歐盟與美國之間的差距已經變得極為龐大。
歐盟國家建立的福利制度自1980年以來持續擴張，並且壓抑經濟成長。今天，社會支出占歐盟各國政府預算總額接近40%，遠高於美國。以同樣的稅前薪資計算，歐洲的強制性社會保險繳款是美國的兩倍至兩倍半。這項負擔大幅提高了歐洲企業的勞動力成本，也解釋了為什麼歐洲僱員的實際到手薪資低於美國。平均而言，歐洲企業每月向僱員支付2,000歐元，也就是大約2,300美元的薪資，實際成本卻高達3,800歐元，也就是大約4,375美元。在美國，企業每月支付2,000美元薪資，實際成本根據所在州不同，只有2,200至2,800美元。這項差距相當可觀，也有助於解釋為什麼歐洲的失業率高於美國。
歐盟還制定了大量令人窒息的法規，對企業造成沉重負擔。對天然氣和電力生產的限制，再加上推動迅速而且極為昂貴的「再生能源」轉型，使歐洲的天然氣價格目前比美國高出三至五倍，電價則比美國高出兩至四倍。為了生存，許多歐洲企業已經把生產活動轉移到歐洲以外。
國際投資正在遠離歐洲。全球十大科技企業中，有九家是美國公司，第十家則來自臺灣。歐洲在這個至關重要的產業中沒有任何主要參與者，在人工智慧領域更是幾乎完全缺席。
儘管熱浪影響歐洲已經超過二十年，但歐洲仍然抗拒使用空調，把空調視為一種昂貴的奢侈品，因為空調會消耗價格高昂的電力。平均而言，歐盟國家只有20%的家庭擁有空調。2003年，歐洲熱浪造成超過兩萬人死亡。歐洲幾乎沒有採取任何措施防止悲劇重演，因此，2026年的另一場熱浪已經奪走兩萬五千人的生命。
其他因素也在加速歐洲的衰退。
對未來的悲觀情緒正在歐洲升高。這種情緒受到一種值得質疑的論述推動，這種論述不斷譴責「人為造成的全球暖化」，並且誇大地宣揚地球可能變得不再適合人類居住的恐懼。民調顯示，目前有63%的歐洲人認為，自己最好的歲月已經過去；77%的人相信，下一代在自己國家的生活將會更加艱難。這種悲觀情緒還伴隨著出生率急劇下降，數據顯示，歐洲人口正在迅速老化。歐盟目前的平均生育率是每名女性生育1.34個孩子，遠低於維持世代更替所需要的2.1。這反映出人口老化正在加速，為退休金和醫療保健制度帶來日益沉重的負擔。西班牙的數字是每名女性生育1.10個孩子，義大利是1.14，波蘭也是1.10。如果不發生重大變化，西班牙、義大利和波蘭的人口將迅速減少。數據顯示，2025年歐盟有346萬人出生，卻有481萬人死亡。
淡化傳統家庭角色的趨勢正在歐洲擴大，使人口世代更替問題進一步惡化。在西班牙、瑞典、法國和英國等多個歐洲國家，性教育與學校教科書中對「性別認同」、「改變性別的可能性」以及「多元家庭結構」的解釋同時出現，其中包括由兩位母親或者兩位父親組成的家庭。在整個歐洲，同性家庭和單親家庭的數量正在增加，而統計數據顯示，這些家庭的子女數量通常少於同時擁有父親和母親的家庭。
歐洲人口正在減少，但至少在現階段，大規模移民對歐洲財政造成的負擔，可能大於他們對勞動力或者經濟成長所作出的貢獻。官僚機構的報告以樂觀語調預測移民會帶來「長期」利益。即使大規模移民真的能夠帶來經濟利益，它仍然正在使歐洲大陸走向文化死亡。
歐洲大多數新移民來自穆斯林世界，而且似乎對融入當地社會或者變得更加西方化毫無興趣。許多人受到自己社群領袖的強烈阻止，不應採取上述任何一種做法，例如透過「榮譽殺人」形成威嚇。此外，穆斯林女性生育的孩子多於非穆斯林女性。在英國，如果穆斯林男子在海外結婚，可以擁有最多四名妻子，每名妻子都能獲得額外的社會福利。穆斯林在教義上被要求鄙視歐洲對同性戀生活方式的寬容，拒絕子女在歷史和性教育方面所接受的內容，把歐洲視為墮落而可鄙的社會，並且公開拒絕接受他們選擇居住的新社會。事實上，移民當中似乎正出現一種日益強烈的要求，要把歐洲改造得更像他們已經離開的第三世界國家。
英國、法國、比利時、荷蘭和瑞典的穆斯林人口比例數十年來不斷上升，並且產生了任何稍微了解歷史的人都可以預料到的後果。各種警告一直沒有受到重視。
抵達歐洲的大多數穆斯林，來自反猶主義和仇恨以色列情緒普遍存在的國家。他們在歐洲定居以後，仍然保持反猶立場和對以色列的仇恨，並且積極促成所在國家仇恨猶太人和反以色列偏見的急劇增加。許多歐洲本地人在政治上與他們結盟，自稱「反錫安主義者」，也就是反對以色列的存在，並對穆斯林的反猶主義表現出極大寬容。
英國平等與人權委員會在2020年10月29日發布的一份報告中認定，在多宗反猶主義案件中，工黨因傑里米·柯賓辦公室進行「不當政治干預」而負有責任。柯賓其後被暫停黨籍，並於2024年被開除出黨。他與另一名前工黨成員扎拉·蘇爾塔娜共同成立了一個新政黨。蘇爾塔娜是一名「反錫安主義」穆斯林。兩人都在2024年再次當選，目前仍然是國會議員。
在法國，主要左翼政黨「不屈法國」持「反錫安主義」立場，公開支持巴勒斯坦組織，並且拒絕把哈馬斯定義為恐怖組織。該黨一些曾經發表反猶言論的領袖受到起訴，但沒有被判罪。
從恐怖組織哈馬斯於2023年10月7日入侵以色列並發動大屠殺開始，在以色列於加薩對哈馬斯作戰的整個期間，西歐所有主要城市都有反以色列示威隊伍上街，並高喊支持哈馬斯的口號。令人震驚的是，自從那場大屠殺發生以來，西歐各地的反猶襲擊急劇增加，猶太人則繼續離開歐洲。
歐洲猶太人大會進行的一項民調顯示，目前仍然留在歐洲的猶太人中，多數希望離開。歐洲猶太人大會主席阿里爾·穆齊坎特於2024年表示：「我們正在輸掉這場戰鬥。57%的歐洲猶太人正在考慮離開。幾年以後，可能有50%的猶太社群將不復存在。」
一些主張捍衛西方文明與價值觀，並且宣示反對歐洲伊斯蘭化和「文明被抹去」的政黨，正在選舉中迅速取得支持。與此同時，歐洲主要國家的政治領袖和歐盟領導人，似乎下定決心阻止這些政黨執政，例如這裡、這裡和這裡所顯示的情況。
在德國，德國另類選擇黨在選民投票意向民調中領先，卻受到其他政黨聯合抵制。這種做法被稱為「防火牆」。其他全國和地方政黨相互結盟，把德國另類選擇黨排除在外，阻止它組成政府，甚至不讓它參與執政。
在已經退出歐盟的英國，英國改革黨在近期多場地方選舉中贏得大量席位，未來甚至可能取代保守黨。與此同時，2026年7月26日至27日進行的一項全國民調顯示，工黨在潛在選民中的支持率已經降至歷史新低，只剩22%，是英國執政黨自1940年代以來最差的成績。由於下一次大選要到2029年才舉行，基爾·斯塔默辭去首相職務，其繼任者安迪·伯納姆由工黨任命，工黨顯然希望盡可能避免提前舉行大選。
在法國，國民聯盟多年來一直是最受歡迎的政黨。在2024年國會選舉期間，國民聯盟一度看來即將贏得絕對多數。就在第二輪投票前，總統艾曼紐·馬克宏敦促其他所有政黨組成「共和陣線」。各黨領袖呼籲選民把票投給最有可能擊敗國民聯盟候選人的人，結果是溫和右翼選民投票支持極左翼候選人，左翼和極左翼選民則投票支持溫和右翼政黨。最終產生了一個四分五裂的國民議會，無法組成一個內部足夠團結、可以作出政策決定的政府。
法國的經濟狀況原本已經令人憂慮，後來進一步惡化。失業率達到8%，而且仍在上升。中小企業破產數量不斷增加，2025年共有69,957家企業破產。國民聯盟領袖瑪琳·勒龐在2027年總統選舉的民調中保持領先。她曾經被判處三年監禁，並被禁止擔任公職45個月，其中30個月緩期執行。她被判罪所涉及的行為，曾經在不屈法國領袖讓-呂克·梅朗雄的案件中導致撤銷指控。勒龐和梅朗雄被指控的行為，都是允許歐洲議會議員的議會助理，在巴黎為自己服務的歐洲議會議員工作。勒龐向法國最高上訴法院翻案法院提出上訴，該法院其後暫停執行判決。
勒龐被定罪並沒有降低她的支持率。翻案法院表示，將在2027年總統選舉以前作出裁決。法院院長已經暗示，原有罪判決可能獲得維持。這表示，如果勒龐當選，她將成為法國歷史上第一位在背負監禁判決的情況下贏得總統職位的人。不屈法國國民議會黨團主席瑪蒂爾德·帕諾宣稱，如果勒龐勝出，她的政黨不會承認這場選舉的合法性，並將號召民眾起義。
這些不受歐洲「精英」歡迎的政黨，其所謂的「罪行」，就是捍衛西方價值、對抗歐洲伊斯蘭化，以及反對歐洲文明遭到抹去。因此，這些政黨受到各種排斥手段打壓，並遭到其他政治領袖持續不斷的騷擾。這些政治領袖似乎不只是在理念上與它們意見不同，還正在把整個歐洲大陸拖向自由落體式的衰敗，甚至可能走向文化死亡。
蓋伊·米利埃爾博士是巴黎大學教授，著有27本關於法國與歐洲的書。
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/22801/europe-in-free-fall
Europe in Free Fall
by Guy Millière
On February 14, 2026, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio delivered a laudatory speech about Europe and its legacy at the Munich Security Conference. He noted, however, that Europe is weakening. "We don't want our allies to be weak," he said.
His remarks initially were well received by the European political leaders and journalists in the room; not for long. Several journalists soon mentioned that, while Rubio appeared friendlier toward Europe than US Vice President J.D. Vance's had been a year earlier, he was still "arrogant" in presuming that Europe needed advice on how to be stronger.
Some recalled that the Trump administration's November 2025 National Security Strategy had warned that Europe faces the "prospect of civilizational erasure" — a claim they described as an "insult" to Europe.
Political leaders were also quick to express their rejection of what Rubio had said. The European Union's foreign affairs and security policy chief, Kaja Kallas, in her own speech in Munich, declared: "Contrary to what some may say... Europe is not facing civilizational erasure."
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz made a point of emphasizing that "European values" were not those championed by the Trump administration.
These reactions unfortunately have not changed the terrifying fact that Europe's erasure as a civilization is underway. Europe is on a path toward rapid, widespread decline — potentially irreversible. It is already extremely late in the day. Unless drastic actions are taken to reverse firmly entrenched trends, European civilization, simply demographically, will soon be part of the past.
Economically, Europe is in ghastly shape. In 1980, the nine member states of the European Economic Community (today's 27-member European Union) accounted for approximately 27% of global GDP, according to the IMF. By the end of 2025, the figure for the same nine countries (plus the former East Germany) had fallen significantly to just 15.5% of global GDP. Some European economists explain this disparity by citing the rapid development of China and the East Asian nations. A look at the US economy, however, shatters that explanation: in 1980, the United States accounted for 25.3% of global GDP — less than the EU's share. By the end of 2025, the United States accounts for approximately 26% of global GDP -- slightly more than in 1980.
For nearly five decades, the European Union's economic growth and productivity rates have lagged behind those of the United States. Statistics also show that the total general government tax revenue as a percentage of GDP has increased in almost all member countries of the European Union — a trend not seen in the United States. Today, general government tax revenue accounts, on average, for more than 40% of the European Union's total GDP. The figure for some countries is lower (22.4% for Ireland), but higher for several others: Denmark (45.8%), France (45.3%), Belgium (45.1%), and Italy (42.6%). The total general government tax revenue (federal, state, and local taxes plus social security) in the United States in 1980 was 25.6% of GDP. Today, it is still 25.6%. On average, populations in European Union countries pay far higher total taxes than Americans do, despite significant US investment in defense. The gap between the European Union and the United States has become immense.
European Union countries have established welfare states that have steadily expanded since 1980 and stifle economic growth. Today, social spending accounts for nearly 40% of total government budgets across the European Union — a figure far higher than that of the United States. Social insurance mandatory contributions in Europe are 2 to 2.5 times higher than in the United States for the same gross salary. This burden significantly increases labor costs for European companies and explains why employee take-home pay is lower in Europe than in the US. On average, in Europe, paying a monthly salary of €2,000 ($2,300) costs a company €3,800 ($4,375). In the US, paying a monthly salary of $2,000 costs a company only $2,200 to $2,800, depending on the state where it operates. The difference is considerable, and helps explain why unemployment in Europe is higher than in the United States.
The European Union has also proliferated stifling regulations that place a heavy encumbrance on businesses. Restrictions on gas and electricity production, combined with a drive for a rapid and extremely costly transition to "renewable energy", have resulted in natural gas prices in Europe that are now three to five times higher than in the US, and electricity prices that are 2 to 4 times higher than in the US. To survive, many European companies have relocated production outside Europe.
International investment is turning away from Europe. Nine of the world's top ten tech companies are American; the tenth is Taiwanese. There are no major European players in this crucial sector, and Europe is almost entirely absent from the field of artificial intelligence.
Although heatwaves have been affecting Europe for more than two decades, the continent remains resistant to air conditioning, viewing it as an expensive luxury (AC consumes costly electricity). On average, only 20% of households in EU countries have air conditioning. In 2003, a heatwave in Europe killed more than 20,000 people. Almost nothing was done to prevent a recurrence, so in 2026, another heatwave has already claimed 25,000 lives.
Other factors are also contributing to Europe's decline.
Pessimism about the future — fueled by the questionable narrative berating "man-made global warming" and the hyped-up fear that the planet may become uninhabitable — is on the rise in Europe. Polls show that 63% of Europeans now believe their best years are behind them, and 77% believe that life in their country will be harder for the next generation. This pessimism is accompanied by a sharp drop in birth rates, with figures indicating that the population is rapidly aging. The average birthrate in the European Union now stands at 1.34 live births per woman, well below the generational replacement level of 2.1. This reflects an accelerating aging process that places an increasingly heavy obligation on pension and healthcare systems. In Spain, the figure is 1.10 live births per woman; in Italy, it is 1.14, and in Poland, it is also 1.10. Without major changes, Spain, Italy, and Poland will experience rapid population decline. Figures show that there were 3.46 million births and 4.81 million deaths in the European Union in 2025.
A trend toward downplaying traditional family roles is gaining ground in Europe, further exacerbating the problem of demographic replacement. In several European countries — Spain, Sweden, France, and the UK — sex education goes hand in hand with school textbooks explaining "gender identity," "the possibility of sex reassignment" and "diverse family structures," including having two mothers or two fathers. Across Europe, the number of same-sex and single-parent families is rising, and statistics show that such families generally have fewer children than families with both a father and a mother.
Europe's population is decreasing, but mass migration, at this stage anyway, might be more of a burden on Europe's finances than a contribution to its workforce or economic growth. Bureaucratic reports rosily predict "long term" gains. Even if mass migration were an economic benefit, it nevertheless is leading the European continent to cultural death.
Most new immigrants in Europe come from the Muslim world and appear to have no interest whatever in assimilating or becoming more westernized. Many are emphatically discouraged from doing either by the leaders of their communities, for instance, by "honor killings." In addition, Muslim women have more children than non-Muslim women. In the UK, Muslim men may have up to four wives if married abroad, each of whom receives extra social welfare benefits. Muslims are doctrinally directed to despise Europe's tolerance of the gay way of life; reject what is taught to their children regarding both history and sex education; see Europe as decadent and contemptible, and to openly reject the new societies in which they chose to live. There appears to be a growing demand among immigrants, in fact, to make Europe more like the Third World countries they abandoned.
The proportion of Muslims in the United Kingdom, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Sweden has been increasing decade after decade – with consequences that anyone even slightly versed in history could have expected. Warnings have gone unheeded.
Most Muslims arriving in Europe come from countries where antisemitism and hatred of Israel are widespread. Once settled in Europe, they remain antisemitic and hateful toward Israel, and contribute aggressively to the sharp rise of Jew-hate and anti-Israel bias in the countries where they now live. Many native Europeans ally themselves politically with them, declare themselves "anti-Zionist" (hostile to the existence of Israel), and show immense tolerance for Muslim antisemitism.
In the UK, the Equality and Human Rights Commission established in an October 29, 2020 report that the Labour Party was guilty of "inappropriate political interference" by Jeremy Corbyn's office in several antisemitism cases. Corbyn was suspended from party membership and, in 2024, expelled from the party. He created a separate party with another former Labour member, Zarah Sultana, an "anti-Zionist" Muslim. Both were reelected in 2024 and are still MPs.
In France, the main left-wing party, La France Insoumise (France Unbowed) is "anti-Zionist," openly supports Palestinian organizations, and refuses to define Hamas as a terrorist organization. Some of its leaders who have made antisemitic remarks have been prosecuted but not convicted.
Starting immediately with the terrorist group Hamas's invasion of Israel and massacre of October 7, 2023, and throughout Israel's war against Hamas in Gaza, anti-Israel demonstrations chanting slogans in support of Hamas were on the march in all major Western European cities. Appallingly, since the massacre, a ntisemitic attacks have seen a sharp increase across Western Europe, while Jews continue to leave Europe.
A poll conducted for the European Jewish Congress (EJC) shows that a majority of Jews still in Europe would like to leave. Ariel Muzicant, the president of EJC said in 2024, "We're losing the battle. 57% of European Jews are considering leaving. In a few years, 50% of the communities may no longer exist."
Political parties defending Western civilization and values — while asserting their opposition to the Islamization of Europe and "civilizational erasure" — are gaining electoral momentum. Meanwhile, political leaders across major European nations and at the helm of the EU appear determined to prevent those parties from governing (such as here, here and here).
In Germany, Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) leads in polls of voter intentions but faces a boycott by other parties known as the Brandmauer ("firewall"), with all other national and state parties forming alliances that exclude the AfD to prevent it from forming or even participating in governments.
In the United Kingdom — no longer part of the EU — Reform UK won many recent local elections and might be positioned to eclipse the Conservative Party. Meanwhile, a national poll conducted on July 26-27, 2026, revealed that the Labour Party had reached a record low among potential voters: 22%, the worst results for a British governing party since the 1940s. With no general election due until 2029, Keir Starmer resigned as prime minister, and his successor, Andy Burnham, was appointed by the Labour Party, apparently trying to avoid a new general election as long as it can.
In France, the National Rally (NR) has been the country's most popular party for years. During the 2024 legislative elections, the NR appeared poised to win an absolute majority. Just before the election's second round, President Emmanuel Macron urged all other parties to form a "Republican Front." Their leaders called for votes to go to whichever candidate stood the best chance of defeating the NR contender: leading moderate right-wing voters to vote for far-left candidates, and left-wing and far-left voters to vote for moderate right-wing parties. The result was a fragmented National Assembly, unable to form a government cohesive enough to make policy decisions.
France's economic situation was already concerning; it has since worsened. Unemployment is at 8% and is rising. Bankruptcies among small and medium-sized enterprises are increasing (in 2025, 69,957 businesses went bankrupt). National Rally's Marine Le Pen has been leading the polls for the 2027 presidential election. She had been sentenced to three years in prison and 45 months (with 30 months suspended) of a public office ban, for actions that had previously led to dropped charges for Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the leader of France Unbowed. The alleged crime was that Le Pen and Mélenchon allowed parliamentary assistants to Members of the European Parliament to work in Paris for the MEPs they served. Le Pen appealed the case to the Court of Cassation, France's supreme court of appeal, which suspended the sentence.
Le Pen's conviction has not diminished her popularity. The Court of Cassation has stated it will issue its ruling before the 2027 presidential election, and the court's president has hinted that the conviction will be upheld — meaning that if elected, Le Pen would become the first French president to win office while under a prison sentence. Mathilde Panot, president of the France Unbowed group in the National Assembly, declared that her party would not recognize the legitimacy of Le Pen's election should she win, and would call for an uprising.
The "offense" of those political parties disfavored by Europe's "elites" consists of defending the values of the West, fighting the Islamization of Europe, and opposing the erasure of European civilization. These political parties are consequently subjected to exclusionary maneuvers and are relentlessly harassed by rival political leaders who not only seem to disagree but are also dragging the continent into a free fall and a possible cultural death.
Dr. Guy Millière, a professor at the University of Paris, is the author of 27 books on France and Europe.