世界已經重塑

[jack]

Victor Davis Hanson

二〇二一年一月，唐納德·川普離開白宮。 此後，世界不是在一聲巨響中，而是在一片沉默中，變成了另一個樣子。 如今，人們被告知的全球現狀，幾乎處處都是誤判，原因主要在於，批評者關注的不是川普做了什麼，而是他說了什麼。

左派——以及部分右翼人士——每當川普發推文、講話，或者做出一些冒犯他們對於品味、傳統和禮儀觀念的事情時，總是怒不可遏。 他們的憤怒，使他們忽略了一個問題：這種《交易的藝術》式的戲劇化表演，最終是否讓美國變得更加強大？ 多數時候，答案都是肯定的。

美國沒有陷入一場與伊朗無休止的戰爭。

以色列並非孤立無援，而且在地區內的主導地位，比歷史上任何時期都更加強大。 無論是伊朗政權、真主黨、哈馬斯還是胡塞武裝，激進伊斯蘭勢力都已經跌至半個世紀以來最虛弱的狀態。

中國正在重新調整過去二十年來幾乎所有戰略假設。 俄羅斯蒙受羞辱，不斷失血。 拉丁美洲也比過去任何時候都更加親近美國。

先來看拉丁美洲。

二〇一三年，約翰·克里在美洲國家組織宣佈：“門羅主義時代已經結束。 ”

他或許沒有想到，這句話會被整個美洲理解為：奧巴馬政府今後將不再單方面阻止遙遠的敵對政權在西半球建立勢力範圍。 事實也確實如此。 隨後，在歐巴馬以及後來拜登執政期間，拉丁美洲出現了一波左翼，甚至公開共產主義政府上臺的浪潮。

不過，這股左翼浪潮已經結束。

截至二〇二六年七月，過去幾年間，拉丁美洲已經明顯擺脫共產主義，重新倒向華盛頓。 總體而言，目前由親美或偏右政府執政的國家包括：阿根廷（哈威爾·米萊）、智利（約瑟·安東尼奧·卡斯特）、玻利維亞（羅德里戈·帕斯·佩雷拉）、巴拉圭（聖地牙哥·培尼亞）、厄瓜多（丹尼爾·諾沃亞）、巴拿馬（約瑟·勞爾·穆利諾）、宏都拉斯（納斯裡·阿斯富拉）、哥斯大黎加（蘿拉·費爾南德斯）以及薩爾瓦多（納伊布·布克爾）。

瓜地馬拉和多明尼加共和國同樣屬於親美國家，而哥倫比亞和秘魯也即將迎來新的保守派政府。 目前，僅剩巴西、古巴、墨西哥、尼加拉瓜和烏拉圭仍由強硬左翼政府執政，這些政府不是公開反美，就是比起美國，更傾向於中國、伊朗和俄羅斯組成的軸心。

為什麼會發生這些巨大變化？ 原因有很多，但有一點尤其突出：美國現在説明自己的朋友，同時打擊自己的敵人。

面對美國施加的壓力，中國已經開始放棄控制巴拿馬運河的努力。 委內瑞拉也不再是那個向鄰國輸出死亡和破壞的史達林主義惡霸。 相反，川普已經抓捕並監禁了查韋斯主義總統尼古拉斯·馬杜羅。 過去，中國和俄羅斯能夠低價購買遭受制裁的委內瑞拉石油，而如今已經做不到了。 來自墨西哥和拉丁美洲的非法移民，也幾乎在歷史上第一次突然停止了。

在北美，加拿大卡尼政府終於開始重新檢討過去親中國、親歐洲、反美國的路線。 此前，加拿大長期沒有兌現北約百分之二國防開支承諾，對美國維持五百億美元貿易順差，並放鬆了加拿大一側邊境的安全管控。

如今，一個新的加美關係正在形成。 加拿大承諾履行防務義務，雙方把所有貿易問題重新擺上談判桌，共同邊境也得到更加嚴密的巡邏。

川普對一向言行不一的墨西哥擁有巨大的影響力。

考慮到美國長期以來給予墨西哥的大量讓步，墨西哥採取反美立場並不令人意外。 墨西哥每年收到約六百五十億美元僑匯，其中很大一部分來自非法移民，而這些人往往還享受美國福利制度的補貼。 他們能夠進入美國，實際上一直得到墨西哥政府默許。

墨西哥還藉著所謂“自由貿易”，積累了兩千億美元對美貿易順差。 而向美國輸出毒品的販毒集團，不僅導致數千名美國人死亡，也把數十億美元毒品利潤注入墨西哥經濟。

然而，川普完全可以大幅提高僑匯稅、削減墨西哥的貿易順差、終止所有非法移民和大部分合法移民，並切斷販毒集團的滲透。 顯然，墨西哥至今仍沒有完全認識到這一現實。

中東如今也突然變成了另一個樣子。

無論最終如何處理伊朗問題，德黑蘭耗費半個世紀、投入五千億美元打造的軍事與核工業體系，都已經化為烏有。 這個曾令整個穆斯林中東聞風喪膽的地區霸主，如今遭到羞辱，徹底暴露出紙老虎本質。 它的經濟，甚至政權本身是否能夠繼續存在，都取決於川普政府的態度。

伊朗之所以不敢輕舉妄動，是因為它知道，只要戰爭再次爆發，以色列隨時可以定點清除任何一位失控的伊朗領導人。

更令人難以置信的是，以色列如今正向穆斯林海灣國家提供情報和導彈防禦系統，而這些國家實際上已經與美國、以色列站在同一陣線，共同對抗另一個穆斯林國家——伊朗。

哈馬斯已經被擊潰。

真主黨曾經令人畏懼的導彈庫，以及大批激進領導人，也基本被消滅。

胡塞武裝由於缺乏任何可信的防空能力，已經明白，每向以色列或紅海發射一枚導彈，就可能再失去一座港口或一座發電廠。

黎巴嫩也開始從長達五十年的沉睡中逐漸甦醒。

俄羅斯隨著阿薩德政權垮臺，失去了它在中東最後一個盟友。

無論是中國還是俄羅斯，都無法通過陸路、海路或空中向伊朗提供補給，也無法繼續購買遭受制裁的伊朗石油。

美國的盟友正在不斷增強，而中俄軸心卻持續削弱。

不久之後，霍爾木茲海峽——伊朗一直視為最大籌碼的戰略通道——對於全球能源市場的重要性，將幾乎像今天對美國一樣變得無足輕重。

目前，繞過波斯灣的現有輸油管道正在擴建，同時還有新的管道正在規劃或施工，將能源直接輸送至紅海、地中海以及霍爾木茲海峽以外的阿曼灣。

美國已經成為歷史上最大的石油和天然氣生產國，根本不需要中東的石油和天然氣，事實上，對那裡幾乎任何資源都已沒有依賴。

歐洲公開厭惡川普。

但私下裡，許多歐洲人都承認，正是川普那些令人難以接受的做法，迫使他們兌現長期被忽視的北約百分之二國防開支承諾，並進一步承諾把國防預算提高到GDP的百分之五。

起初，這劑藥似乎比疾病本身更難接受。 但如今，歐洲已經默默承認，川普是正確的，而且來得正是時候，使歐洲能夠在俄羅斯持續向西施壓之際，加快重新武裝。

如果繼續放任歐洲走下去，它幾乎徹底解除武裝、人口持續萎縮、無止境敵視化石燃料和核能、大規模接納來自中東、非洲等地非法移民，以及社會主義不斷擴張，最終將把整個歐洲變成第三世界式的人間地獄。

美國目前不僅允許烏克蘭自行生產「愛國者」導彈，還允許烏克蘭攻擊俄羅斯境內任何目標。

與此同時，川普幾乎是西方唯一一位持續強調，這場戰爭是一場造成數十萬人傷亡的悲劇，必須儘快結束的領導人。

但另一方面，他給予澤連斯基比歷任美國總統更大的攻擊許可權，也提供了更多具有爭議性的武器。

無論如何，美國最大的競爭對手俄羅斯，如今已經處於自上世紀九十年代蘇聯解體后混亂時期以來，政治、經濟和軍事最虛弱的狀態。

如果五年前有人預測，俄羅斯有一天會開始進口汽油，或者克里姆林宮周圍建築會經常遭到無人機襲擊，人們一定會認為他神志不清。

同樣，也沒有人會想到，俄羅斯竟會在自己發動的這場類似斯大林格勒式的烏克蘭消耗戰中，付出可能超過一百萬人陣亡、受傷、失蹤或被俘的代價，同時損失大約一半的艦艇、坦克和飛機。

那麼，中國呢？

中國幾乎正以與當年崛起同樣快的速度陷入衰退。

中國總和生育率已經降至僅有一，而每天消耗的石油有百分之七十五依賴進口，天然氣進口佔百分之四十二，糧食進口佔每日消費量百分之三十。

中國出口的武器，也證明根本無法與西方武器競爭。

一位年邁、越來越孤立、越來越多疑的中國領導人明白，入侵臺灣，很可能會像俄羅斯在烏克蘭、伊朗在中東一樣，為中國帶來災難性的後果。

與此同時，逐漸覺醒的西方終於開始厭倦中國的重商主義政策，並開始要求真正的貿易對等。

澳大利亞、日本、菲律賓、韓國和台灣組成的反華陣線，正在以前所未有的速度重新武裝。

這些國家也正與美軍進一步整合，因為它們都面對來自中國這一共同的生存威脅。

與此同時，隨著拜登時代DEI體系退出，美國軍隊已經全面完成所有徵兵目標，而這些目標過去幾年一直難以達成。

五角大樓很快將擁有接近GDP百分之五的國防預算，達到二〇〇八年至二〇一一年伊拉克和阿富汗戰爭時期以來最高水準。

美國武器採購體系也正在經歷革命性改革，不再只強調高性能，同時更加重視數量和成本。

過去長期依賴政治遊說、維持昂貴壟斷的大型軍工企業，如今終於開始面對來自小型高科技國防新創企業的競爭。

甚至一向對國防工業持敵視態度的矽谷，如今也開始仿效第二次世界大戰時期的戰時生產委員會，全力投入下一代武器研發，希望確保美國繼續保持全球軍事優勢。

蓬勃發展的美國經濟，目前每年創造三十一萬億美元的商品和服務，比人口更多的歐盟和中國都高出約三分之一。

美國在人工智慧、機器人、基因工程以及加密貨幣等幾乎所有下一代關鍵技術領域，都已經重新領先。

美國股市也不斷創下歷史新高。

綜合這一切來看，現實幾乎令人難以置信。

就在左派不斷宣稱美國已經衰弱、已經遭到國際孤立的時候，美國及其盟友卻已經重新站上自第二次世界大戰結束以來從未有過的全球優勢地位。

https://amgreatness.com/2026/07/14/the-world-made-anew/

The World Made Anew

America's allies are stronger, its rivals weaker, and the global balance has shifted.

By Victor Davis Hanson

With a whimper rather than a bang, the world has become a different place than it was in January 2021, when Donald Trump left office. Almost everything we are now told about the global status quo is mistaken—largely because critics focus on what Trump says rather than on what he does.

Rather, the Left—and some on the Right—are furious whenever Trump tweets, says, or does something that offends their delicate sense of taste, tradition, and decorum. Their outrage leads them to ignore whether this “Art of the Deal” theater ultimately leaves the United States stronger. More often than not, it does.

We are not bogged down in a forever war with Iran.

Israel is not without friends and is more regionally dominant than at any point in its history. Radical Islam—whether in the form of the Iranian regime, Hezbollah, Hamas, or the Houthis—is at its weakest point in half a century.

China is recalibrating nearly all of the assumptions it has held for the past two decades. Russia is humiliated and hemorrhaging. Latin America is more pro-American than ever before.

So let’s start with Latin America.

In 2013, John Kerry boasted to the Organization of American States that “the era of the Monroe Doctrine is over.”

He may not have anticipated how naturally his declaration would be interpreted throughout the Americas: that the Obama administration would no longer act unilaterally to prevent distant, hostile regimes from establishing spheres of influence in the Western Hemisphere. And indeed, Latin America subsequently witnessed a wave of left-wing—and sometimes overtly communist—governments emerging during the Obama and later Biden administrations. But that left-wing wave is over.

Instead, here is where things stand as of July 2026: Latin America has swung decisively away from communism and toward Washington over the last few years. Broadly speaking, the governing pro-American or right-leaning administrations include Argentina (Javier Milei), Chile (José Antonio Kast), Bolivia (Rodrigo Paz Pereira), Paraguay (Santiago Peña), Ecuador (Daniel Noboa), Panama (José Raúl Mulino), Honduras (Nasry Asfura), Costa Rica (Laura Fernández), and El Salvador (Nayib Bukele).

Guatemala and the Dominican Republic are both pro-U.S., and new conservative governments will soon take power in Colombia and Peru. Only Brazil, Cuba, Mexico, Nicaragua, and Uruguay remain governed by hard-left administrations that are either openly anti-American or friendlier to the China-Iran-Russia axis than to the United States.

Why these dramatic changes? There are many reasons, but one stands out: the United States now helps its friends and harms its enemies.

China is now backing away from its efforts to control the Panama Canal in the face of U.S. pressure. Venezuela is no longer a Stalinist bully exporting death and destruction to its neighbors. Instead, Trump captured and jailed its thuggish Chavista president, Nicolás Maduro. Russia and China once bought sanctioned Venezuelan oil on the cheap—but no longer. Almost all illegal immigration from Mexico and Latin America has abruptly ceased, for the first time in history.

In North America, the Carney government in Canada is finally rethinking its pro-Chinese, Europhilic, anti-Americanism—after welching on its 2 percent defense commitment, running up a $50 billion trade surplus with the United States, and loosening security along its side of the border. Now a new Canadian–American relationship is emerging. Canada is pledging to meet its defense commitments. All trade issues are on the table. And the shared border is more securely patrolled.

Trump has enormous leverage over an often-duplicitous Mexico.

That country’s anti-American posture is hardly surprising, given the concessions the United States has long extended to it. Mexico receives some $65 billion annually in remittances, much of it sent by illegal aliens who are often subsidized through American entitlement programs. Most had their entry into the United States effectively greenlighted by Mexico City.

Mexico has run up a $200 billion trade surplus under the guise of “free trade.” And its drug-exporting cartels have killed thousands of Americans while pouring billions of dollars in drug profits into the Mexican economy. Trump, however, can sharply tax remittances, reduce Mexico’s trade surpluses, halt all illegal and much legal immigration, and end cartel infiltration—realities that Mexico apparently still has not fully grasped.

The Middle East is now suddenly a different place. Whatever the final denouement with Iran, Tehran has lost a half-century and half-trillion-dollar investment in its military and nuclear industrial complex. The once-feared bully of the Muslim Middle East has been humiliated and exposed as a paper tiger, with its economy, and perhaps its very existence, now dependent on the disposition of the Trump administration. It leaves Israel alone because it knows the Jewish state can target any of its unhinged leaders whenever hostilities resume.

In a development that would once have seemed surreal, Israel is providing intelligence and missile defense to the Muslim Gulf states, which are effectively fighting alongside the United States and Israel against a fellow Muslim nation.

Hamas has been crushed. Hezbollah’s once-feared missile arsenal and many of its crazy leaders have been largely eliminated. The Houthis, lacking any credible air defenses, know that every missile they launch at Israel or into the Red Sea could cost them another port facility or power station. Lebanon is reawakening from its 50-year coma.

Russia lost its last client in the Middle East with the fall of the Assad regime. Neither China nor Russia can supply Iran by land, sea, or air, nor can either purchase its sanctioned oil. America’s allies are growing stronger, while the China–Russia axis grows weaker.

Soon the Strait of Hormuz—Iran’s supposed trump card—will be nearly as irrelevant to global energy markets as it is already to the United States. Existing pipelines that bypass the Gulf are being expanded, while new ones are planned or already under construction to the Red Sea, the Mediterranean, and the Gulf of Oman beyond the Strait. The United States is the largest producer of oil and gas in history and does not need Middle Eastern oil or gas—or, for that matter, much of anything else besides.

Europe publicly despises Trump. Privately, however, many Europeans concede that his antics compelled them to meet their long-neglected 2 percent defense commitments and inspired their new pledges to spend 5 percent of GDP on defense. Although the medicine initially seemed worse than the disease, Europe now quietly acknowledges that Trump was right—and just in time to accelerate rearmament as Russia pressed westward. If left unchecked, Europe’s embrace of near-total disarmament, shocking demographic decline, unending hostility toward fossil fuels and nuclear energy, mass illegal immigration from the Middle East, Africa, and elsewhere, and steadily expanding socialism will turn the continent into a third world hellhole.

The United States is allowing Ukraine both to manufacture Patriot missiles and to strike targets anywhere inside Russia. Yet Trump remains almost alone among Western leaders in describing the war as a tragic waste of hundreds of thousands of human lives that must end. At the same time, he has given President Zelensky greater targeting leeway and access to more controversial weapons than any previous president.

In any case, our rival Russia is now in its weakest political, economic, and military condition since the post-Soviet chaos of the 1990s. Had anyone predicted five years ago that Russia would be importing gasoline or that buildings around the Kremlin would routinely be struck by drones, he would have been dismissed as delusional. Nor could anyone have imagined Russia suffering perhaps well over one million dead, wounded, missing, or captured in a Stalingrad-like slog of its own making in Ukraine—while losing perhaps half its arsenal of ships, tanks, and aircraft.

And China?

It is sinking almost as rapidly as it once rose, burdened by a fertility rate of just 1.0 while importing 75 percent of its daily oil consumption, 42 percent of its natural gas, and 30 percent of its daily food. Its weapons exports are proving no match for Western arms.

An aging, increasingly isolated, and deeply paranoid leader knows that an invasion of Taiwan could prove as disastrous for China as the wars in Ukraine and Iran have been for Russia and Iran. Meanwhile, a gradually awakening West seems to be finally weary of Chinese mercantilism and is starting to demand reciprocity in trade.

An anti-bloc of Australia, Japan, the Philippines, South Korea, and Taiwan is rearming as never before. These nations are also integrating more closely with American forces in response to the common existential threat posed by China.

Meanwhile, with the departure of the Biden-era DEI apparatus, the U.S. military has exceeded every one of its recruiting targets, all of which had, in recent years, been anemic. The Pentagon will soon oversee a defense budget approaching 5 percent of GDP, the highest since the Iraq and Afghanistan buildup in 2008–11. Its weapons procurement system is undergoing revolutionary changes, placing as much emphasis on quantity and affordability as on quality.

Small, high-tech defense start-ups are finally being given the chance to compete with ossified conglomerates that have long relied on lobbyists to preserve their costly monopolies. Even left-leaning Silicon Valley, once largely hostile to the defense industry, is now emulating the World War II-era War Production Board in its eagerness to ensure U.S. global supremacy in next-generation weaponry.

The booming U.S. economy now produces $31 trillion in goods and services, roughly one-third more than either the more populous European Union or China. America is pulling ahead in most of the next-generation fields of artificial intelligence, robotics, genetic engineering, and cryptocurrency. Its stock market is at record highs.

Add it all up, and the picture is almost surreal: at the very moment the Left insists that the United States has grown weak and isolated, America and its allies occupy a position of global preeminence not seen since the end of World War II.